Marathon Petroleum Corp Stock Performance

MPC Stock  USD 176.19  0.45  0.26%   
The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 0.35, which conveys possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Marathon Petroleum's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Marathon Petroleum is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Marathon Petroleum Corp has a negative expected return of -0.15%. Please make sure to verify Marathon Petroleum's skewness, as well as the relationship between the rate of daily change and period momentum indicator , to decide if Marathon Petroleum Corp performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Weakest

 
Weak
 
Strong
Over the last 90 days Marathon Petroleum Corp has generated negative risk-adjusted returns adding no value to investors with long positions. In spite of latest weak performance, the Stock's basic indicators remain sound and the latest tumult on Wall Street may also be a sign of longer-term gains for the firm shareholders. ...more

Actual Historical Performance (%)

One Day Return
0.26
Five Day Return
(0.84)
Year To Date Return
6.69
Ten Year Return
321.81
All Time Return
803.54
Forward Dividend Yield
0.0228
Payout Ratio
0.4973
Last Split Factor
2:1
Forward Dividend Rate
4
Dividend Date
2025-12-10
 
Marathon Petroleum dividend paid on 10th of December 2025
12/10/2025
1
Heres Why Marathon Petroleum Fell More Than Broader Market
12/17/2025
2
Disposition of 192 shares by Rick Hessling of Marathon Petroleum at 148.65 subject to Rule 16b-3
01/02/2026
3
Marathon Petroleum Corp. to Report Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year Financial Results on February 3, 2026
01/05/2026
4
Can Marathon Petroleum Turn Venezuelan Heavy Crude Access Into a Lasting Refining Edge
01/09/2026
5
Analysts Weekly Ratings Changes for Marathon Petroleum
01/15/2026
6
Marathon Petroleum Stock Rating Lowered by Zacks Research
01/22/2026
7
Marathon Petroleum Stock Sinks As Market Gains Heres Why
01/26/2026
8
Marathon Petroleum Earnings Expected to Grow Should You Buy
01/27/2026
9
Cactus Custody Rolls Out MPC Self-Custody Platform With Chainalysis
01/28/2026
Begin Period Cash Flow5.4 B
Total Cashflows From Investing Activities1.5 B

Marathon Petroleum Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you would invest  19,481  in Marathon Petroleum Corp on November 2, 2025 and sell it today you would lose (1,862) from holding Marathon Petroleum Corp or give up 9.56% of portfolio value over 90 days. Marathon Petroleum Corp is generating negative expected returns assuming volatility of 1.9732% on return distribution over 90 days investment horizon. In other words, 17% of stocks are less volatile than Marathon, and above 99% of all equities are expected to generate higher returns over the next 90 days.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Marathon Petroleum is expected to under-perform the market. In addition to that, the company is 2.64 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about -0.07 of its total potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly 0.07 per unit of volatility.

Marathon Petroleum Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

The tendency of Marathon Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 176.19 90 days 176.19 
about 72.74
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Marathon Petroleum to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 72.74 (This Marathon Petroleum Corp probability density function shows the probability of Marathon Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Marathon Petroleum has a beta of 0.35. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Marathon Petroleum average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Marathon Petroleum Corp will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Marathon Petroleum Corp has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   Marathon Petroleum Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Marathon Petroleum

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Marathon Petroleum Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
173.96175.93177.90
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
174.73176.70178.67
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
164.16166.13168.10
Details
20 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
177.30194.83216.26
Details

Marathon Petroleum Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Marathon Petroleum is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Marathon Petroleum's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Marathon Petroleum Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Marathon Petroleum within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.17
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.35
σ
Overall volatility
11.16
Ir
Information ratio -0.1

Marathon Petroleum Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Marathon Petroleum for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Marathon Petroleum Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Marathon Petroleum generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Marathon Petroleum has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 76.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
On 10th of December 2025 Marathon Petroleum paid $ 1.0 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Cactus Custody Rolls Out MPC Self-Custody Platform With Chainalysis

Marathon Petroleum Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Marathon Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Marathon Petroleum's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Marathon Petroleum's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding341 M
Cash And Short Term Investments3.2 B

Marathon Petroleum Fundamentals Growth

Marathon Stock prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of Marathon Petroleum, and Marathon Petroleum fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on Marathon Stock performance.

About Marathon Petroleum Performance

By analyzing Marathon Petroleum's fundamental ratios, stakeholders can gain valuable insights into Marathon Petroleum's financial health, operational efficiency, and overall profitability, helping them make informed investment and management decisions. For instance, if Marathon Petroleum has a high ROA and ROE, it suggests that the company is efficiently using its assets and equity to generate substantial profits, making it an attractive investment. Conversely, if Marathon Petroleum has a low ROA and ROE, it may indicate underlying issues in asset and equity management, signaling a need for operational improvements.
Last ReportedProjected for Next Year
Days Of Inventory On Hand 24.26  22.19 
Return On Tangible Assets 0.04  0.05 
Return On Capital Employed 0.10  0.13 
Return On Assets 0.04  0.05 
Return On Equity 0.17  0.14 

Things to note about Marathon Petroleum Corp performance evaluation

Checking the ongoing alerts about Marathon Petroleum for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Stock alerts and notifications screener for Marathon Petroleum Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Marathon Petroleum generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Marathon Petroleum has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 76.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
On 10th of December 2025 Marathon Petroleum paid $ 1.0 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Cactus Custody Rolls Out MPC Self-Custody Platform With Chainalysis
Evaluating Marathon Petroleum's performance can involve analyzing a variety of financial metrics and factors. Some of the key considerations to evaluate Marathon Petroleum's stock performance include:
  • Analyzing Marathon Petroleum's financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
  • Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether Marathon Petroleum's stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
  • Examining Marathon Petroleum's industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
  • Evaluating Marathon Petroleum's management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of Marathon Petroleum's management team can help you assess the Company's leadership.
  • Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of Marathon Petroleum's stock. These opinions can provide insight into Marathon Petroleum's potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
It's essential to remember that evaluating Marathon Petroleum's stock performance is not an exact science, and many factors can impact Marathon Petroleum's stock market price. Therefore, it's also important to diversify your portfolio and not rely solely on one company or stock for your investments.

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When running Marathon Petroleum's price analysis, check to measure Marathon Petroleum's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Marathon Petroleum is operating at the current time. Most of Marathon Petroleum's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Marathon Petroleum's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Marathon Petroleum's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Marathon Petroleum to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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